Currency Overlay How think and act Big-Players when hedging their Share-, Currency-, Commodity- and Interest Risk?
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In general, the exchange of amounts in different currencies is a zero-sum game. The reason that some participants of the foreign exchange  market manage their foreign currency positions actively make it to some of them possible to operate above the zero-border. Thus, to the  burden of other participants.   The Market The prospect of the foreign exchange market has changed increasingly in recent years. It is no longer considered as a minor product of  international trading- and capital markets, it is now also respected as a form of investment. Funds- and Hedge Fund Manager, whose strategies  often don't meet the expectations because of low volatility in the equity markets, decided to create foreign exchange strategies and startet to  build their own currency funds. Funds are going increasingly more sophisticated in the use of currency vehicles in order to increase their gains.  At least it will be tempted so, because the predictability is nearly impossible, because there are myriad of paramers which couldn't be sufficient  calculated, e.g. human logic.   The Participants  A look into the publications of the funds shows it: there is no doubt about that the number of Funds investing into  currencies is having more and more popularity. On the contrary most Asset Managers, Treasurer and Cash  Manager deal with currencies for a transactional background, i.e. underlying. That means, behind a trade is in  most cases a "real" transaction with goods or fixed assets, e.g. shares. So far no pure aim for profit, just rather a  hedge or a simple change from one currency to another currency, because it is needed physically today or in the  future. The behaviour for improvement is reduced to the negotiation of better prices regarding the change.  Smaller customers do it by phone, middle customers by their Treasury Management System and larger customers  with special broker-software which is online with multiple banks. The best bank-offer gets the deal.  The decission of the Bank resp. the Institutional Market Participant It can be discussed about the benefits of such software. On the one side it is just simply easy to calculate the profit threshold for the market  participant, i.e. the customer. On the other hand there is the question about the timing. Should the order now at 11:00:00, at 11:00:10 or at  11:01:00 executed and where is then the rate? This coincidence factor cannot be calculated and the band within a minute in the foreign  exchange market can be huge, relatively seen to the tough negotiations for one or two pips only.  The Winner and the Loser About one thing all market participants agree: currency risk is always present, as long  as it is not naturally hedged (e.g. assets vs. capital, revenues vs. expenses in the same  currency at the same time). This risk must be recognized and managed. Banks offer to  especially institutional customers, thereof mainly from the volumes perspective the  funds with their enormous resources, tailored resp. structured products in order to have  the currency exposure under control at lowest possible costs. But the principle of a zero-  sum game is still present. The questions arise, who are the losers in that global trading  system. At the end of the day all of us in the one or other form. May it be by direct  losses, non-taken gains, higher margins on the products which we trade or consume  daily. Therefore the global circle is going to be closed. Nevertheless, every market  participant is trying for his own benefit to get his best possible optimum. This leads to  the question where this optimum can be fixed and how high the tolerance for losses is for each single participant?  Pension Funds which do not manage their currency exposure proactive and therefore don't hedge, expose themselves clear and take into  account the gains and losses occurred by exchange rate. Hence, it exists on the one hand a financing matter and on the other hand a portfolio  efficiency question. If Enterprises and Pension Funds take this risk just into account it can be derived the assumption that those risks are  managed separately in another asset class in order to get back in the "save" profit zone. Most of the Companies and Funds drive on a strategy  in the middle. That means, hedge currency exposure partially and additionally the volatility from price differences occurred by currency  exchange effects.  With the attempt to save  the earnings and to expand them, pension funds continuously increase the part of shares denominated in foreign  currencies. Doing this, they increase their currency exposure. That in combination with the active management of investment vehicle is the  main reason for the expandation of the professional category of the Cash Manager. In former times those tasks have been managed  outsourced to specialized companies, but in line with the always more upcoming internationalization the currency exchange risk is also  increasing. Unification of currencies, like the Euro, are the absolute exception to reduce that risk.  Get the Optimum, regardless what the intention of the Market Participant is It must be distinguished between  1. Trading, Production and Service Enterprises (the companies) and  2. Institutional Investors.  The first group attempt, as already mentioned above, minimizing their risk while the second group try to  generate gains with those risks. But both have one and the same consensus: get the optimum out  of the currency market. Currency Overlay In a strategic and tactical investment process, FX can be a separate asset class and currency exposure can reduce expected portfolio risk.  Active currency overlay positions are in general uncorrelated with bond and equity positions. A successful active FX management increases the  portfolio return and should be viewed as a natural part in a fund's alpha process.  Our Partner, Mercury Control AG, Switzerland, applies a strictly disciplined style rotation strategy, based on continuous macro, political and flow analysis across the G7 currencies and are combined with technical forecasting tools. The trading style itself is selected from the following  options, accordingly: Momentum  Range  Volatility Momentung Trading  Momentum Trading acts as the overarching style, inasmuch as it determines trade execution according to a principal outlook for mid- to long-  term movements governing the FX market. Its role is also to set the stage for Range Trading - the most commonly applied FX trading style - by  identifying the maximum and minimum range lines to execute trades, according to risk-return principles.  Range Trading  Range Trading, on the other hand, analyzes the underlying channeling patterns (range) resulting from currently prevailing "paid price"  scenarios. The clear goal is to trade as long as possible within such a range in order to maximize the value-adding potential of this style .  Volatility (Vega) Trading  A final rotation to Volatility Trading occurs when a previously applied range "breaks out" to either side and no clear continuation is immediately  detectable. As a result, options are written on the existing short (sold) or long (bought) positions. However, once all Volatility Trading  possibilities are exhausted there is a logical movement back to Momentum or Range Trading.  The risk or hedge ratio between 0% and 100% and the base currency specified by the client defines the proportional amount of the mandate's  absolute currency exposure. This means, either an active or a passive managed mandate.  Active currency management enables the client to reduce risk and add return to an international portfolio whereas the passive approach negates the foreign exchange risk and reduces the diversification benefits from international investments Case Study The following is a case study for a customer: Related Cash Flows to above mentioned trades: In other words, a Treasurer with functional currency CHF and need of reducing FX-exposure for $ 7.2m is now able to compensate his loss of  long USD 7.2m x (1.0741-1.1871)= - CHF 813’600  with the gain of the overlay transactions whereas a Treasurer or Fund-Manager with need  of opimizing his $ 25m investment achieved an annualized gross-profit of 28,2%.  Hint: in case of using  Currency Overlay for hedging purpose, we recommend according best practice risk management to apply a value at risk   approach in order to adjust the overlay portfolio to the current underlying and complete it with an absolute loss amount.  Do you like to know more about Currency Overlay? Don’t hesitate and contact us.
Currency Overlay How think and act Big-Players when hedging their Share-, Currency-, Commodity- and Interest Risk?
back
In general, the exchange of amounts in different currencies is a zero- sum game. The reason that some participants of the foreign  exchange market manage their foreign currency positions actively  make it to some of them possible to operate above the zero-border.  Thus, to the burden of other participants. The Market The prospect of the foreign exchange market has changed  increasingly in recent years. It is no longer considered as a minor  product of international trading- and capital markets, it is now also  respected as a form of investment. Funds- and Hedge Fund  Manager, whose strategies often don't meet the expectations  because of low volatility in the equity markets, decided to create  foreign exchange strategies and startet to build their own currency  funds. Funds are going increasingly more sophisticated in the use of  currency vehicles in order to increase their gains. At least it will be  tempted so, because the predictability is nearly impossible, because  there are myriad of paramers which couldn't be sufficient calculated,  e.g. human logic.   The Participants A look into the publications of the  funds shows it: there is no doubt  about that the number of Funds  investing into currencies is having  more and more popularity. On the  contrary most Asset Managers,  Treasurer and Cash Manager deal  with currencies for a transactional  background, i.e. underlying. That  means, behind a trade is in most  cases a "real" transaction with goods or fixed assets, e.g. shares. So  far no pure aim for profit, just rather a hedge or a simple change  from one currency to another currency, because it is needed  physically today or in the future. The behaviour for improvement is  reduced to the negotiation of better prices regarding the change.  Smaller customers do it by phone, middle customers by their  Treasury Management System and larger customers with special  broker-software which is online with multiple banks. The best bank-  offer gets the deal. The decission of the Bank resp. the Institutional Market  Participant  It can be discussed about the benefits of such software. On the one  side it is just simply easy to calculate the profit threshold for the  market participant, i.e. the customer. On the other hand there is the  question about the timing. Should the order now at 11:00:00, at  11:00:10 or at 11:01:00 executed and where is then the rate? This  coincidence factor cannot be calculated and the band within a  minute in the foreign exchange market can be huge, relatively seen  to the tough negotiations for one or two pips only. The Winner and the Loser About one thing all market participants agree: currency risk is always present, as long as it is not naturally hedged (e.g. assets vs. capital,  revenues vs. expenses in the same currency at the same time). This  risk must be recognized and managed. Banks offer to especially  institutional customers, thereof mainly from the volumes perspective  the funds with their enormous resources, tailored resp. structured  products in order to have the currency exposure under control at  lowest possible costs. But the principle of a zero-sum game is still  present. The questions arise, who are the losers in that global  trading system. At the end of the day all of us in the one or other  form. May it be by direct losses, non-taken gains, higher margins on  the products which we trade or consume daily. Therefore the global  circle is going to be closed. Nevertheless, every market participant is  trying for his own benefit to get his best possible optimum. This  leads to the question where this optimum can be fixed and how high  the tolerance for losses is for each single participant? Pension Funds which do not manage their currency exposure  proactive and therefore don't hedge, expose themselves clear and  take into account the gains and losses occurred by exchange rate.  Hence, it exists on the one hand a financing matter and on the other  hand a portfolio efficiency question. If Enterprises and Pension  Funds take this risk just into account it can be derived the  assumption that those risks are managed separately in another  asset class in order to get back in the "save" profit zone. Most of the  Companies and Funds drive on a strategy in the middle. That  means, hedge currency exposure partially and additionally the  volatility from price differences occurred by currency exchange  effects. With the attempt to save  the earnings and to expand them, pension  funds continuously increase the part of shares denominated in  foreign currencies. Doing this, they increase their currency  exposure. That in combination with the active management of  investment vehicle is the main reason for the expandation of the  professional category of the Cash Manager. In former times those  tasks have been managed outsourced to specialized companies, but  in line with the always more upcoming internationalization the  currency exchange risk is also increasing. Unification of currencies,  like the Euro, are the absolute exception to reduce that risk. Get the Optimum, regardless what the intention of the  Market Participant is  It must be distinguished  between 1. Trading, Production and  Service Enterprises (the  companies) and 2. Institutional Investors.  The first group attempt, as already mentioned above, minimizing  their risk while the second group try to generate gains with those  risks. But both have one and the same consensus: get the  optimum out of the currency market.  Currency Overlay In a strategic and tactical investment process, FX can be a separate  asset class and currency exposure can reduce expected portfolio  risk. Active currency overlay positions are in general uncorrelated  with bond and equity positions. A successful active FX management  increases the portfolio return and should be viewed as a natural part  in a fund's alpha process. Our Partner, Mercury Control AG, Switzerland, applies a strictly  disciplined style rotation strategy, based on continuous macro,  political and flow analysis across the G7 currencies and are  combined with technical forecasting tools. The trading style itself is  selected from the following options, accordingly: Momentum  Range Volatility Momentung Trading  Momentum Trading acts as the overarching style, inasmuch as it  determines trade execution according to a principal outlook for mid-  to long-term movements governing the FX market. Its role is also to  set the stage for Range Trading - the most commonly applied FX  trading style - by identifying the maximum and minimum range lines  to execute trades, according to risk-return principles. Range Trading  Range Trading, on the other hand, analyzes the underlying  channeling patterns (range) resulting from currently prevailing "paid  price" scenarios. The clear goal is to trade as long as possible within  such a range in order to maximize the value-adding potential of this  style . Volatility (Vega) Trading  A final rotation to Volatility Trading occurs when a previously applied  range "breaks out" to either side and no clear continuation is  immediately detectable. As a result, options are written on the  existing short (sold) or long (bought) positions. However, once all  Volatility Trading possibilities are exhausted there is a logical  movement back to Momentum or Range Trading. The risk or hedge ratio between 0% and 100% and the base  currency specified by the client defines the proportional amount of  the mandate's absolute currency exposure. This means, either an  active or a passive managed mandate.  Active currency management enables the client to reduce risk and add return to an international portfolio whereas the passive approach negates the foreign exchange risk and reduces the diversification benefits from international investments Case Study The following is a case study for a customer: Related Cash Flows to above mentioned trades: In other words, a Treasurer with functional currency CHF and need  of reducing FX-exposure for $ 7.2m is now able to compensate his  loss of long USD 7.2m x (1.0741-1.1871)= - CHF 813’600  with the  gain of the overlay transactions whereas a Treasurer or Fund-  Manager with need of opimizing his $ 25m investment achieved an  annualized gross-profit of 28,2%. Hint: in case of using  Currency Overlay for hedging purpose, we  recommend according best practice risk management to apply a  value at risk approach in order to adjust the overlay portfolio to the  current underlying and complete it with an absolute loss amount. Do you like to know more about Currency Overlay? Don’t hesitate and contact us.
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